Date: March 31, 2025

On March 31, 2025, Prof. Michael Mainelli—British economist, former Lord Mayor of the City of London, and Chairman of Z/Yen Group—visited CDI. Prof. Mainelli shared insights on Z/Yen’s recent projects, including efforts to reduce trade barriers, initiatives to support the global green transition, research on the Smart Centres Index, and programs promoting Sino-UK educational exchange. The two sides discussed potential opportunities for bilateral cooperation between China and the UK, as well as prospects for research collaboration between CDI and Z/Yen.

Date: March 20, 2025

Following the Spring Festival, economy regained momentum in February as businesses resumed operations, accelerating production and commercial activity. Key indicators such as the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index, and Composite PMI Output Index all rebounded month-on-month, remaining in expansionary territory. While these figures signal a tentative recovery from earlier lows, sustaining growth will demand stronger policy reinforcement and expedited implementation.

Economic Recovery Shows Marginal Improvement from Low Levels

In February, the Composite PMI Output Index rose by 1.0 percentage points from the previous month to 51.1%, returning to expansion territory. The Manufacturing PMI, up 1.1 percentage points to 50.2%, emerged as the primary growth driver. A breakdown of the index shows that both production and demand within the manufacturing sector improved, with the Production Index and New Orders Index rising by 2.7 and 1.9 percentage points, respectively, to 52.5% and 51.1%. Both indices entered expansion territory, indicating a notable improvement in manufacturing supply and demand. This resurgence bolstered corporate confidence, pushing the Purchasing Volume Index up by 2.9 percentage points to 52.1%. On the non-manufacturing side, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index edged up 0.2 percentage points to 50.4% in February.

Export Disruptions Due to Tariffs and "Front-Loading"

From January to February, Merchandise exports grew 3.4% year-on-year, though this was a slight moderation compared to full-year 2024 and December figures. Trade with the U.S. expanded at a slower pace, with exports rising 2.9% year-on-year—5.1 percentage points lower than in December 2024—partly reflecting adjustments to U.S. tariff hikes. Meanwhile, shipments of products that retain a competitive edge under current tariff conditions, such as smartphones and laptops, saw a boost, possibly as exporters sought to stay ahead of potential U.S. trade restrictions. However, taking into account two fewer working days in January-February 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, the year-on-year export growth rate would have been higher if measured on a per-working-day basis.

New Growth Drivers Accelerate Industrial Expansion

Industrial output from large-scale enterprises grew 5.9% year-on-year in January-February, extending the robust momentum seen since Q4 2024. The pace edged up 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, respectively. Externally, export momentum sustained industrial expansion, with export delivery values rising 6.2% year-on-year—1.1 percentage points faster than 2024’s annual rate. Domestically, policies such as large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer trade-in programs, expanded in 2025, spurred industrial modernization and unlocked consumption potential, further driving growth. On the supply side, equipment manufacturing and high-tech industries led the charge, with rapid growth continuing to optimize the industrial structure.

"Two Major" Projects Fuel Investment Growth

In January and February, investment increased by 4.1% year-on-year, up by 0.9 percentage points compared to the whole of last year. First, support for "Two Major" projects (advancing national strategic initiatives and enhancing key security capabilities) has strengthened, with physical work volumes picking up, driving a faster growth in infrastructure investment. Infrastructure investment rose by 5.6% year-on-year in January and February, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points from 2024, contributing 1.1 percentage points to overall investment growth. The "Two New" policies (promoting large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins) have been further expanded, with their effects becoming increasingly evident, spurring rapid growth in equipment investment. Second, progress in the high-quality development of key industrial chains is solid, with the transformation of traditional industries accelerating, leading to strong growth in manufacturing investment. Third, real estate policies have mitigated the decline in investment, showing early signs of stabilization.

Trade-In Programs and Green Consumption Boost Retail Sales

In January and February, retail sales grew by 4.0% year-on-year, with goods retail increasing by 3.9% and catering revenue rising by 4.3%. The growth in consumer spending was driven by the expansion of trade-in policies, which quickly unlocked demand for appliances and electronics. Meanwhile, the increasing focus on green and health-conscious products fueled strong growth in the eco-friendly and wellness sectors. Additionally, a surge in travel and leisure activities led to a rapid increase in spending on transportation, accommodation, and related services, highlighting a broader recovery in consumption.

Efforts Needed to Stimulate a Balanced Price Recovery

In February, China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.2% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, reflecting the combined impact of Chinese New Year timing, holiday effects, and volatile global commodity prices. The year-on-year decline was primarily driven by a high base effect: food and service prices surged during February 2024’s holiday period, inflating the comparison base and putting downward pressure on this year’s figure. Food prices dropped 3.3% year-on-year, accounting for over 80% of the CPI decline (contributing 0.6 percentage points to the total 0.7% drop). This sharp contraction in food costs—the largest drag on prices—tipped the CPI into deflationary territory. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) continued to decline due to seasonal industrial sluggishness and softer global commodity prices. However, both month-on-month and year-on-year PPI decreases narrowed by 0.1 percentage points, signaling easing deflationary pressures.

Date: Feb 20, 2025

In January, due to the Spring Festival holiday and seasonal factors, industrial production entered an off-season, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) declining month-on-month. However, service and food prices rose significantly affected by the timing of the holiday, along with a rebound in gasoline prices, collectively driving an expansion in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth. Overall, despite signs of moderation, economic activity remains on a positive trajectory, underscoring the need to expedite the implementation of supportive measures

Economic Growth Moderates, but Certain Sectors Gain Momentum

In January, the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index fell by 2.1 percentage points month-on-month to 50.1%, reflecting impacts from the Spring Festival holiday and the return of employees to their hometowns. This indicates a broad-based slowdown, though overall economic expansion persists. Driven by the Spring Festival effect, sectors related to residents' travel and consumption—such as road transportation, accommodation, catering, ecological protection, and public facility management—saw their Business Activity Indexes rebound into expansionary territory, signaling greater market vitality. Meanwhile, sectors including air transport, postal services, telecommunications, broadcasting, satellite transmission, and monetary financial services maintained robust Business Activity Indexes above 55.0%, sustaining rapid growth in output.

Surge in Aggregate Social Financing

In January, total social financing increased by 7.06 trillion yuan, up by 586.6 billion yuan compared to the same period last year. Financial institutions issued 5.13 trillion yuan in new RMB loans (including loans to non-bank financial institutions), a year-on-year increase of 210 billion yuan. Structurally, the surge was driven by government bonds and corporate financing, while household borrowing remained weak. Corporate financing hit record highs, with medium- and long-term loans growing further despite a high base. The demand for household short-term loans remained low, likely due to the timing of the Spring Festival. Additionally, the reduced demand for business loans to refinance existing mortgages, following cuts in mortgage rates, weighed on medium- to long-term business loans.

Property Market Prices See Divergent Trends

In January, housing prices in first-tier cities continued to rise month-on-month, whereas second- and third-tier cities saw slight declines, reflecting a clear divergence in trends. Specifically, new home prices in first-tier cities increased by 0.1% month-on-month, though the rate of growth slowed by 0.1 percentage point compared to December. In second-tier cities, new home prices rose by 0.1%, marking the first increase since June 2023, while third-tier cities saw a 0.2% decline. For existing homes, first-tier prices edged up by 0.1%, a 0.2 percentage point slowdown from December, second-tier prices dropped by 0.3%, and third-tier prices fell by 0.4%. Year-on-year, price declines narrowed across all city tiers, suggesting gradual stabilization.

Core Consumption Recovery Emerges as Economic Stabilizer

In January, industrial production remained subdued due to the holiday, with the PPI falling by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year—unchanged from the previous month's annual decline. Prices in non-ferrous metal mining and processing saw significant increases, while ferrous metal smelting, coal mining, and related industries accounted for nearly 90% of the PPI’s annual decline, contributing 2.11 percentage points. The CPI, however, expanded year-on-year, fueled by holiday-driven service and food price surges along with higher gasoline prices. Notably, the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose for the fourth consecutive month, climbing 0.5% month-on-month and 0.6% year-on-year, with both growth rates accelerating from December.

Date: Jan 20, 2025

Despite external pressures and domestic challenges, China's economy exhibited stability and steady progress in 2024. Targeted incremental policies boosted confidence and facilitated a strong recovery. Export growth decelerated in the first three quarters owing to diminished global demand, although industrial supply chains remained resilient. In Q4, an increase in "front-loading exports" stimulated manufacturing growth, whereas large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-in programs maintained ongoing demand and investment in manufacturing. Existing policies, together with new stimulus measures, have spurred local infrastructure investment, though further improvements are required. The recovery in the real estate sector remains sluggish, and its economic contribution has not yet improved. 

Overall Economic Stability with Continued Growth.

In 2024, China’s GDP increased by 5.0% at constant prices, with quarterly growth rates of 5.3% in Q1, 4.7% in Q2, 4.6% in Q3, and 5.4% in Q4, indicating a stable upward trend. From Q4 onwards, sustained policy impacts significantly enhanced market expectations and confidence, resulting in positive shifts in both the capital and real estate markets. The service sector grew by 5.8% year-on-year in Q4, an increase of 1.0 percentage point from Q3. The stock market surged, with trading volumes in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rising by 126.4% and 124.4% year-on-year respectively, significantly outperforming the first three quarters.

Exports See Consistent Growth.

In 2024, China’s goods exports increased by 7.1%, indicating a rise of 6.5 percentage points from the previous year, significantly contributing to economic growth. In Q4, "front-loading exports" surged, and strong consumption demand in Europe and the U.S. stimulated a resurgence in export growth. In December, exports rose 10.9% year-on-year, representing an increase of 4.0 percentage points from the previous month. The U.S. remained the primary driver of growth, whereas exports to ASEAN increased by 18.9%. Products sensitive to U.S. tariffs, such as automobiles, machinery, auto parts, and textile yarns, saw notable growth. Furthermore, Chinese industrial goods gained global competitiveness, further accelerating export growth. 

Manufacturing Fuels Industry Resilience.

In 2024, China’s large-scale industrial enterprises exhibited stable growth, with value-added industrial output rising by 5.8% year-on-year, reflecting a 1.2 percentage point acceleration from the previous year. Manufacturing played a central role, rising by 6.1%, whereas mining and utilities grew by 3.1% and 5.3%, respectively. Policy support continued to advance the manufacturing sector toward higher-end development, with equipment manufacturing increasing by 7.7% and high-tech manufacturing by 8.9%, both exceeding overall industrial growth. 

Investment Growth Accelerates with Policy Support.

Fixed asset investment increased by 3.2% in 2024, up 0.2 percentage points over the previous year. Backed by ultra-long-term special government bonds and local government special bonds, major infrastructure projects advanced rapidly, boosting infrastructure investment by 4.4%. Manufacturing investment increased by 9.2%, indicating the sector’s shift toward high-end and advanced industries. Investment in high-tech manufacturing and services grew by 7.0% and 10.2%, respectively. In Q4, targeted policy measures contributed to the stabilization of the real estate market, easing the decline in new home sales and driving the growth in the real estate production index for three consecutive months.

Consumption Growth Requires Further Stimulus.

In 2024, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.5%, accelerating in Q3 and Q4, but still below the previous year’s pace. Retail sales of goods rose by 3.2%, whereas dining revenue increased by 5.3%, both below the previous year’s growth rates. Sales at large brick-and-mortar retailers rose by 1.9%, with new retail formats performing well. Policies promoting trade-ins for consumer goods resulted in stronger sales in key categories, including home appliances and audiovisual equipment, which maintained double-digit growth for four consecutive months. Auto and furniture sales returned to positive growth, whereas demand for construction and home improvement materials showed signs of recovery. 

Stabilizing Prices and Easing Declines.

In 2024, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, narrowing its decline by 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous year. From January to July, the PPI decreased from -2.5% in January to -0.8% in July, driven by rising international crude oil and non-ferrous metal prices, a recovering domestic production sector, and a low base effect. However, in August, a dip in global commodity prices led to a 0.7% month-on-month loss, widening its year-on-year decline. Since September, the impact of policy measures and recovering industrial demand has slowed the PPI's monthly decline, with the index turning positive in November and the year-on-year decrease steadily shrinking.

Date: September 12, 2024

During a discussion hosted by the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations and CDI on September 12, 2024, Chinese and Mexican officials, scholars, and entrepreneurs shared insights on the trajectory of Sino-Mexican relations against the backdrop of U.S.-Mexican relations, as well as the opportunities and challenges for Chinese businesses investing in Mexico. The discussion enabled both sides to better understand and prepare for the future landscape of Sino-Mexican trade.

Date: September 10, 2024

CDI delegation led by President Prof. Fan Gang visited Chicago think tanks on September 10, 2024. During the roundtable discussion, Professor Fan addressed China’s economic development and the prospects for U.S.-based international companies operating in China. Academics and business leaders were gathered together to exchange views on the future of Sino-U.S. foreign and trade relations, U.S. trade policies regarding renewable energy industries and supply chains, as well as their broader implications.

Date: August 27, 2024

Author: Mr. MING Liang, Research Fellow, Institute of Urbanization, CDI

In 2024, the Chinese AAA game Black Myth: Wukong debuted spectacularly, swiftly becoming a trending topic and a "top influencer." Inspired by the Chinese literary classic Journey to the West, this game has indeed created a “black myth,” achieving dual success in both critical acclaim and sales. The wide-ranging discussions it has sparked primarily revolve around the following three aspects:

1.Black Myth: Wukong Sets a Benchmark for High-Quality AAA Games in China

Domestic developers rarely ventured into AAA game territory owing to high costs, lengthy development cycles, and competitive threats. The launch of Black Myth: Wukong has altered this landscape. The game has gained widespread acclaim from players both domestically and internationally due to its top-notch character design, narrative structure, special effects, scene rendering, and voice acting. It has not only dominated sales charts in many countries and regions but has also become the first Chinese game to break into Steam’s top ten concurrent player rankings, ushering in a new era for China's gaming industry in the international arena.

2.Black Myth: Wukong’s Creative Team Embodies Both Idealism and Pragmatism

This monumental game was not created by a major corporation but rather the culmination of six years of dedicated effort by a small-to-medium tech company. The team balanced their aspiration to develop high-quality single-player games with the need for financial stability, which was provided by revenue from mobile game ventures. They achieved collaborative synergy by forming project teams in both the Guangdong-Hongkong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Yangtze River Delta, bringing “Wukong’s black myth” to life.

3.Black Myth: Wukong Offers Fresh Perspectives on the Next Wave of “Cultural Export”

Video games are not just cultural carriers but also powerful channels for dissemination. The creators of Black Myth: Wukong seamlessly blended the “81 tribulations” from Journey to the West into the gameplay while digitally reconstructing 31 iconic landmarks from 12 provinces and cities across China with meticulous 1:1 accuracy. These endeavors vividly showcase the charm of traditional Chinese landscapes and the elegance of Oriental aesthetics, offering international players a rich and immersive experience of Chinese culture that transcends the story.

Beyond its Achievements: Reflections and Lessons

1.International Competition in Gaming is a Grueling Long Game

Similar to Wukong’s journey through the “81 tribulations,” the gaming industry demands constant innovation and refinement to maintain player engagement and loyalty. The game has achieved a remarkable debut, but the road ahead is challenging. Competing with global frontrunners requires extraordinary creativity, substantial investment, and continuous product optimization with operational excellence. While the game’s creators have received significant acclaim, they have also acknowledged criticisms, indicating areas for improvement. The considerable scrutiny and lofty expectations associated with the game serve as a “Sword of Damocles” over the team, signifying that this is only the “first level” of their journey. Many more “demons and monsters” lie in wait, making the journey ahead as arduous as it is promising.

2.Games, as a Vital Component of “Cultural Export,” Must Work in Tandem with Other Channels

As a blend of technology and creativity, Black Myth: Wukong offers a visually and audibly compelling introduction to Chinese culture. However, it still falls short of promoting regular and effective cross-cultural interactions. From the perspective of international communication practices, “cultural export” is a long-term, systematic endeavor that necessitates leveraging various cultural carriers and channels to establish a massive, effective matrix. Among these, the popularity of learning Chinese as a second language serves as a key indicator. As global interest in Chinese cultural symbols grows, the emergence of Chinese language education as a trend will be crucial in this new wave of “cultural export.” Nevertheless, “cultural export” has already set sail; the journey westward is poised to reach its destination.

3.Social Attributes of Games Call for a Balance of Multiple Factors

As a form of entertainment that encourages emotional and psychological engagement, video games not only generate substantial economic and commercial value but are also inherently constrained by laws, policies, cultural traditions, and ethical norms of different countries. As a unique cultural industry, the gaming sector has its own strengths and shortcomings. Policymakers should refrain from both excessive suppression and short-sighted “rush tactics.” Instead, they must strike an optimal balance between economic, social, and cultural dimensions.

Date: September 13, 2024

Author: Dr. LIU Jie, Senior Research Fellow at CDI

In 2021, China transitioned to a moderately aging society, with the aging process set to accelerate, posing increasing challenges to healthcare and elderly care. The rapid aging phenomenon is marked by three key features:

1. Trend: China’s aging population is poised to join the “fast lane.”
2. Structure: The proportion of the very elderly population is steadily increasing.
3. Features: Issues related to chronic diseases and disabled older adults are becoming more pronounced.

The China Population Aging Development Trend Forecast Report indicates that China will reach critical milestones in the acceleration of aging between 2035 and 2050, with the older adult population projected to peak in 2053. From 2021 to 2035, the older adult population is expected to increase from 300 million to 400 million, representing an accelerated growth rate. Simultaneously, the proportion of extremely old individuals (aged 80 and above) will continue to climb, accompanied by a sharp increase in the number of individuals with chronic conditions and disabilities.

Establishing a suitable integrated healthcare and elderly care service system has emerged as an urgent priority.

     Insufficient Supply: Several integrated care models are still in their nascent stages. Nationwide, only 7,800 qualified institutions provide a total of 2 million beds, significantly insufficient to meet the massive demand. Rehabilitation hospitals and elderly care facilities often possess insufficient medical capabilities, and the medical support for home-based and community care is also inadequate.

     Healthcare Payment Gaps: Existing medical payment systems fail to effectively support long-term hospitalization and rehabilitation for older adults, resulting in frequent transfers between facilities or significant out-of-pocket expenses.

     Family Care Burden: The caregiving burden for families of disabled and cognitively impaired older adults is increasing annually. With the increase in the aging population and the decline in birth rates, many families struggle with the exorbitant costs of professional care.

     Limited Long-Term Care Insurance Coverage: Although the number of pilot cities for long-term care insurance has expanded to 49, only approximately 1.34 million individuals get coverage, falling far short of the demand for disability care.

Addressing these challenges necessitates the development of a robust integrated healthcare and elderly care system.

1.Expand Integrated Healthcare and Elderly Care Services

To address the dual needs of healthcare and elderly care, resources must be coordinated to provide services tailored to demand, encompassing disease treatment, chronic disease management, postoperative rehabilitation, and long-term care. This entails:

     Encouraging underutilized hospitals and medical institutions to transition into integrated care providers.

     Implementing healthcare reimbursement policies in eligible elderly care facilities and promoting the development of medical services within these institutions.

     Enhancing home-based and community care by augmenting the medical capabilities of community health centers, expanding the availability of family beds, and gradually strengthening the capacity of primary healthcare institutions to deliver in-home services for older adults.

2.Transition Secondary and Lower-Tier Hospitals to Integrated Care Facilities

Only 10% of hospitals in China are tertiary-level facilities, while secondary and lower-tier hospitals often struggle with operational difficulties and fail to meet the treatment, rehabilitation, and care needs of an aging society. Transforming these hospitals into integrated healthcare and elderly care facilities is essential. A referral mechanism should be implemented, enabling treatment-oriented hospitals to transition patients to rehabilitation hospitals, integrated care facilities, or elderly care institutions as part of a tiered medical system.

3.Achieve Universal Coverage of Long-Term Care Insurance

The coverage of social security-based long-term care insurance must be expanded, together with improvements in funding mechanisms and benefit guarantees, to ensure a government safety net. Additionally, commercial insurance companies should be encouraged to participate in pilot programs by offering personalized long-term care insurance products with tax incentives for buyers. By integrating insurance with care services, commercial insurers can help enhance the development of the care service system.

4.Expand Hospice Care Pilot Programs

Efforts should be undertaken to increase the number of hospice care facilities and strengthen the training of relevant medical staff. A bed-day payment model combining healthcare reimbursement and personal contributions should be investigated to meet the needs of terminally ill patients.

With the acceleration of China’s aging society, the integration of healthcare and elderly care will be vital in addressing the challenges posed by population aging to safeguard the well-being of older adults.

Date: September 15, 2024

Author: Dr. CAO Zhongxiong, Assistant President of CDI, and the Director of the Digital Strategy and Economic Research Center

China's platform economy has evolved through distinct stages, transitioning from unchecked growth to a phase of well-regulated governance and innovative development. Over time, this process has cultivated a group of leading platform enterprises. The last three years have been pivotal, signifying a period of significant transformation. Initially driven by the rapid rise of the "Internet Plus" initiative, platform enterprises expanded into traditional industries, often being equated with e-commerce companies by the public. However, as digital technology increasingly integrates with the real economy, platform enterprises are now venturing into emerging fields such as technological innovation, driving their businesses to new depths.

Consider Alibaba as a prime example. In the last three years, the company has significantly increased its investment in areas such as AI-driven large language models. Its proprietary “Tongyi” model has secured a leading position in the global open-source large-model landscape. Alibaba has also facilitated the development of next-generation models by leveraging its own computational power and technical capabilities. This evolution demonstrates a shift: platform enterprises are no longer merely commercial entities but are increasingly positioning themselves as digital enterprises. As pioneers of the digital economy, platform enterprises are leveraging digital technologies to drive supply-side reform, stimulate consumption, streamline supply chains, promote dual circulation (domestic and international), and foster flexible employment, transforming themselves into comprehensive integrators of digital technology application and advancement.

Although Alibaba’s journey began in e-commerce, it has progressively evolved into a frontrunner in China’s technological innovation. Amid a global wave of advancements, the company has achieved breakthroughs in operating systems and cloud computing, integrating innovation into its operations to enhance technological independence and resilience. Consequently, platform enterprises are now not only key players in commerce but also essential engines of technological progress.

China’s platform economy has now embarked on a new stage of development, necessitating a balance between effective regulation and the promotion of growth for its advancement.

Looking Ahead: The Expanded Role of China’s Platform Economy

1.Platform Enterprises as Leaders in Technological Innovation

China’s emphasis on technology has reached unprecedented heights. For platform enterprises, innovation is not only about their own advancement but also about enabling collaborative innovation across industries and ecosystems—a critical component of their "new journey." New technologies, especially in artificial intelligence, are advancing rapidly. Platform enterprises are uniquely positioned to provide the computational power and infrastructure essential to enhancing the feasibility, scalability, and economic viability of innovation. As major tech companies, they possess resource allocation capabilities, robust R&D capacities, and deep talent reserves, allowing for sustained investment in technological innovation and effective risk management.

2.Platform Enterprises as Catalysts for Emerging Productive Forces

The platform economy, as a novel economic model, is closely aligned with the national objective of fostering new productive forces. Market regulators expect platform enterprises to leverage technological innovation to drive industrial upgrades and assume a greater role based on their transformative outcomes. These enterprises are positioned at the forefront of the market, with profound insights into market demands, industry dynamics, and technological applications. They can overcome traditional constraints of time and space by aggregating, circulating, and sharing innovation resources online, promoting technological advancements across upstream and downstream industries. By empowering ecosystem partners, platform enterprises can stimulate the development of emerging industries and consistently contribute to new productive forces—which is a core responsibility and crucial in the digital economy ecosystem.

3.Platform Enterprises as Exemplars of Fair Competition

Compliance and maintenance of fair competition are crucial for sustainable development, whether achieved through the internal ecosystem or their external role as core players in the digital economy. At this new starting point, platform enterprises must continually strengthen their awareness of fair competition and improve their compliance capabilities. This not only facilitates their own growth but also establishes an industry benchmark. By optimizing the business environment and fostering fair competition, platform enterprises demonstrate a strong sense of social responsibility and commitment.

Navigating Challenges in a Rapidly Evolving Landscape

The accelerated advancement of digital technologies and the transformation of industries and ecosystems are propelling the global economy forward, fueled by computational power. However, technologically advanced nations often create "technology barriers" and "ecosystem barriers," hindering latecomers from catching up. As technological gaps widen, the challenges of addressing them increase exponentially.

China's platform enterprises have a solid foundation characterized by internationally competitive companies and the “scenario advantage” enabled by a unified, large-scale domestic market. Leading firms such as Alibaba have become critical infrastructure and technological platforms for national innovation. Fully developing the platform economy and harnessing the innovation capacity of platform enterprises will revitalize Chinese modernization and facilitate high-quality development.

Date: December 20, 2024

In November, the combined effects of macroeconomic policies became more evident. The acceleration of export growth boosted industrial chains, while policies promoting large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins bolstered manufacturing demand and investment. Infrastructure investment, though slightly decelerating, demonstrated resilience due to the effective execution of existing policies and the accelerated implementation of new measures. Concurrently, strengthened real estate support policies increased transaction volumes; nonetheless, achieving full stabilization requires further recovery in income expectations on the demand side. On the whole, macroeconomic policies are yielding tangible benefits, with key sectors exhibiting promising signs of recovery.

Economic Expansion Gains Further Momentum

In November, the Composite PMI Output Index remained steady at 50.8%, indicating sustained economic growth. The Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.3%, with the Production Index and New Orders Index rising to 52.4% and 50.8%, respectively. Notably, new orders returned to growth for the first time since May, indicating increased demand and market activity. However, the non-manufacturing sector saw mounting pressure as the Business Activity Index dipped to 50.0%. Service output growth moderated slightly to 6.1% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from October.

Exports Remain Stable Amid Fluctuations

From January to November, goods exports increased by 6.7% year-on-year, aligning with the January–October growth rate, indicating strong overall resilience. While November's growth rate decreased by 6 percentage points to 6.7%, it remained among the highest levels this year. Key drivers were front-loading effects and sustained strong demand from the U.S. and ASEAN markets, with U.S. exports surpassing those to Europe. Holiday demand for toys and communication equipment notably enhanced U.S. export growth. However, the EU’s tariffs on electric vehicles tempered gains in the automotive supply chain.

Manufacturing Drives Steady Industrial Growth

From January to November, large-scale industrial output increased 5.8% year-on-year, with November seeing an acceleration of 5.4%. Manufacturing increased by 6.0%, marking its third consecutive month of growth and solidifying its position as the primary driver. Conversely, mining and utilities experienced a slight slowdown from the previous month. Policies promoting new technologies and emerging industries stimulated rapid growth in shipbuilding, smart consumer devices, and lithium battery production. Incentives for new energy vehicles and home appliance upgrades further boosted output. In November, export delivery value increased 7.4% year-on-year, representing the highest monthly growth since August 2022 and providing a strong boost to industrial chains.

Investment Growth Eases Slightly Despite Policy Support

Investment increased 3.3% year-on-year from January to November, with monthly growth decelerating to 2.4% in November. Infrastructure investment slightly decelerated to 4.2%, whereas manufacturing investment maintained a strong pace of 9.3%. Real estate investment declined further to -11.5%, but property sales recorded positive monthly growth for the first time since April 2023, increasing developers' funding sources. Transportation and storage investment declined sharply, whereas gains in power and water infrastructure provided significant support.

Multiple Measures to Bolster and Sustain Consumption Growth

Consumption continued to recover steadily as policies such as trade-ins for new products further stimulated consumer demand, resulting in strong sales across most categories. From January to November, retail sales increased 3.5% year-on-year, maintaining the same pace as the previous period. In November, retail sales grew 3.0%, seeing a slight moderation attributed to early "Double 11" promotions and a strong comparison base from last year. Policies promoting product upgrades led to significant growth in auto and furniture sales, which increased by 6.6% and 10.5%, respectively. Construction and renovation materials saw a resurgence, recording a 2.9% increase. Service-related retail sales also sustained a robust upward trend under the influence of various consumption-boosting measures.

Domestic Prices Gradually Return to Stable Levels

In November, coordinated policies boosted industrial recovery, resulting in a shift in the Producer Price Index from decline to slight monthly growth, reducing its year-on-year shrinkage by 0.4 percentage points. Prices in key sectors, including petroleum extraction, chemicals, and electricity, experienced minor reductions. On the Consumer Price Index (CPI) front, food prices dropped 2.7% month-on-month, markedly above the seasonal average decline over the past decade, mainly attributable to abnormal weather that enhanced agricultural production and logistics. This resulted in a month-on-month decrease of 0.6% in the overall CPI. Non-food prices also fell by 0.1%, indicating weaker demand for travel during the off-season. The decrease in food prices contributed to a moderation in the year-on-year CPI increase, which eased to 1.0%.