Date: December 20, 2024
In November, the combined effects of macroeconomic policies became more evident. The acceleration of export growth boosted industrial chains, while policies promoting large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins bolstered manufacturing demand and investment. Infrastructure investment, though slightly decelerating, demonstrated resilience due to the effective execution of existing policies and the accelerated implementation of new measures. Concurrently, strengthened real estate support policies increased transaction volumes; nonetheless, achieving full stabilization requires further recovery in income expectations on the demand side. On the whole, macroeconomic policies are yielding tangible benefits, with key sectors exhibiting promising signs of recovery.
Economic Expansion Gains Further Momentum
In November, the Composite PMI Output Index remained steady at 50.8%, indicating sustained economic growth. The Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.3%, with the Production Index and New Orders Index rising to 52.4% and 50.8%, respectively. Notably, new orders returned to growth for the first time since May, indicating increased demand and market activity. However, the non-manufacturing sector saw mounting pressure as the Business Activity Index dipped to 50.0%. Service output growth moderated slightly to 6.1% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from October.
Exports Remain Stable Amid Fluctuations
From January to November, goods exports increased by 6.7% year-on-year, aligning with the January–October growth rate, indicating strong overall resilience. While November's growth rate decreased by 6 percentage points to 6.7%, it remained among the highest levels this year. Key drivers were front-loading effects and sustained strong demand from the U.S. and ASEAN markets, with U.S. exports surpassing those to Europe. Holiday demand for toys and communication equipment notably enhanced U.S. export growth. However, the EU’s tariffs on electric vehicles tempered gains in the automotive supply chain.
Manufacturing Drives Steady Industrial Growth
From January to November, large-scale industrial output increased 5.8% year-on-year, with November seeing an acceleration of 5.4%. Manufacturing increased by 6.0%, marking its third consecutive month of growth and solidifying its position as the primary driver. Conversely, mining and utilities experienced a slight slowdown from the previous month. Policies promoting new technologies and emerging industries stimulated rapid growth in shipbuilding, smart consumer devices, and lithium battery production. Incentives for new energy vehicles and home appliance upgrades further boosted output. In November, export delivery value increased 7.4% year-on-year, representing the highest monthly growth since August 2022 and providing a strong boost to industrial chains.
Investment Growth Eases Slightly Despite Policy Support
Investment increased 3.3% year-on-year from January to November, with monthly growth decelerating to 2.4% in November. Infrastructure investment slightly decelerated to 4.2%, whereas manufacturing investment maintained a strong pace of 9.3%. Real estate investment declined further to -11.5%, but property sales recorded positive monthly growth for the first time since April 2023, increasing developers' funding sources. Transportation and storage investment declined sharply, whereas gains in power and water infrastructure provided significant support.
Multiple Measures to Bolster and Sustain Consumption Growth
Consumption continued to recover steadily as policies such as trade-ins for new products further stimulated consumer demand, resulting in strong sales across most categories. From January to November, retail sales increased 3.5% year-on-year, maintaining the same pace as the previous period. In November, retail sales grew 3.0%, seeing a slight moderation attributed to early "Double 11" promotions and a strong comparison base from last year. Policies promoting product upgrades led to significant growth in auto and furniture sales, which increased by 6.6% and 10.5%, respectively. Construction and renovation materials saw a resurgence, recording a 2.9% increase. Service-related retail sales also sustained a robust upward trend under the influence of various consumption-boosting measures.
Domestic Prices Gradually Return to Stable Levels
In November, coordinated policies boosted industrial recovery, resulting in a shift in the Producer Price Index from decline to slight monthly growth, reducing its year-on-year shrinkage by 0.4 percentage points. Prices in key sectors, including petroleum extraction, chemicals, and electricity, experienced minor reductions. On the Consumer Price Index (CPI) front, food prices dropped 2.7% month-on-month, markedly above the seasonal average decline over the past decade, mainly attributable to abnormal weather that enhanced agricultural production and logistics. This resulted in a month-on-month decrease of 0.6% in the overall CPI. Non-food prices also fell by 0.1%, indicating weaker demand for travel during the off-season. The decrease in food prices contributed to a moderation in the year-on-year CPI increase, which eased to 1.0%.
