macro outlook
September 23, 2020
IMG 9105

Recovery reaches pre-pandemic level

Industrial output was up 5.6% y/y, up 0.8 pps from July, reaching the average growth rate of 2019. We expect growth might slightly exceed the pre-pandemic level for the rest of the year. Investment fell -0.3% y/y January-August, up 1.3 pps from previous months. The driving force is switching from state to private investment, reconfirming the return to pre-pandemic economic recovery.

Consumption was up 0.5% y/y, the first turn to positive growth this year, and up 1.6 pps from July. Exports were up 11.6% y/y, above 10% y/y for two consecutive months. Despite the U.S.-China conflict, exports to…

December 20, 2019
IMG 3087

2020 growth target likely to be about 6%

The annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) held by top leaders December 10th-12th emphasized “stabilities.” We believe that “around 6%” is the likeliest 2020 growth target. Infrastructure investment was mentioned, suggesting that infrastructure spending will be used to support the economy, if growth slows notably below 6%.

The good news that “phase 1” of a China-U.S. trade agreement, which includes a reduction of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, and an increase of foreign investor access to China, may be signed in early 2020, has cheered the markets. There are more optimistic…

November 22, 2019
IMG 2950

PPI Deflation May Be Worrisome

Major economic indicators are still mostly falling in October. Industrial output rose 4.7% y/y, comparable to July and August. Investment rose 3.4% y/y, down 1.3 pps from Q3. Retail sales of social consumption goods rose 7.2% y/y, and its real growth rate was 4.9% y/y, down 0.4 and 0.8 pps from Q3 respectively.

In October, exports rose 2.1% y/y, and imports fell -3.5% y/y, down1.8 and 0.6 pps from Q3. Export to US fell -13.8% y/y, but up 6.2 pps from September. Trade surplus is enlarging dramatically, and rose 36.6% y/y.

Since July, societal financing scale was slowing, and rose only 0.8%…

September 24, 2019

Financial Market Opens Further

Growth is slowing further. In August, industrial output was up 4.4% y/y, down 0.4 pps from July, while investment rose 4.2% y/y, down 1.3 pps from Q2.

Retail sales of social consumption goods were up 7.5% y/y in August, down 1.1 pps from Q2. The indicator’s real growth rate was 5.6% y/y, down 0.9 pps from Q2. Exports were stable, but the import growth rate was plunging. Exports were up 2.6% y/y. Yet recent export growth was rather volatile. The July-August combined growth rate was 5.9% y/y, almost the same as in Q1 and Q2. The much lower export growth to the United States was compensated for…

June 22, 2019

More Steps toward Financial Openness with London-Shanghai Connect

Growth is facing downward pressure. Industrial output rose 5% y/y, down 0.4 pps from April, reaching a new low rate. Investment rose 4.4% y/y, down 1.3 pps from April. The decrease of investment growth rate is mainly affected by state investment because of fiscal deficit pressure. State investment rose 5.6% y/y in May, down 4.2 pps from April. In May, fiscal revenue fell -2.1% y/y, down 7.4 pps from January-April, putting further constraint on state investment. Real estate cooled further.

Retail sales of social consumption goods were up 8.6% y/y in May in nominal terms. The adjusted growth…